Miami Herald: Charlie Crist could be vulnerable in race for U.S. Senate

This article was published by the Miami Herald on September 13, 2009

BY ADAM C. SMITH
St. Petersburg Times

Charlotte Southern / For the Miami Herald Charlie Crist arrives at Por Fin in Coral Gables for a fundraising event Wednesday evening. Crist shakes hands with Martin Ley, visiting from Madrid, outside the restaurant. Charlie Crist is swimming in campaign money, and polls consistently show him to be among the most popular politicians in America.

But something ominous and unpredictable is brewing in Florida, and a growing number of Republicans are starting to consider the unthinkable: the people’s governor could lose his campaign for U.S. Senate.

“It’s rare that I talk to anyone that’s got a good thing to say about the governor right now. It’s hard to find a real Charlie Crist ally,” said former state Republican Chairman Tom Slade. “Charlie Crist is a marvelous politician, but rarely do you use the word statesman with Charlie Crist. That’s his vulnerability, getting branded as another self-centered politician, and he doesn’t have many more opportunities to muff up before that happens.”

It’s a testament to Crist’s remarkable political skill, of course, that the entire world doesn’t view him as politically vulnerable. Consider the climate.

His state is losing population for the first time in 60 years. Unemployment and foreclosures are soaring. Taxes haven’t dropped like a rock as he promised, and Florida remains one hurricane away from bankruptcy. County Republican parties are openly revolting against Crist, while a charismatic young rival, Marco Rubio, is being hailed on the cover of William F. Buckley’s National Review magazine as the future of the GOP.

Yet, click on local TV news in almost any part of Florida and there’s a smiling Charlie Crist looking as calm and gracious as ever. Hard to imagine anyone could seem more honored and humbled to be serving Floridians.

“To have an opportunity to play a small role in returning this beautiful sea turtle back to the sea is a very special privilege indeed,” Crist, taking a break from a campaign fundraising trip, told a TV reporter in the Keys last week after releasing Margarita, a 278-pound turtle.

Such friendly images — Gov. Charlie with school kids, at hospital wards or just looking into a camera tut-tutting proposed power company rate increases — partly explain Crist’s gravity-defying popularity.

A HECKUVA JOB Poll after poll finds beleaguered Florida voters think Crist, 53, is doing a heckuva job. Even as Tallahassee lobbyists loading up his U.S. Senate campaign account quietly dismiss him as an empty suit, Republican activists boo his name, and newspaper opinion writers become increasingly scornful of his leadership.

Simply put, Florida voters trust the governor who strives to avoid antagonizing anyone. The latest poll, from Quinnipiac University in August, found 60 percent of voters approve of his performance, including 66 percent of Republicans, 54 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents.

“If Charlie were a sour person, it would be a lot easier for people to put blame on him, but he has this persona built in the gubernatorial campaign and campaigns past where he is such a nice fellow. . . . He’s got that kind of magic,” marvelled former state Republican Party executive director David Johnson, who worked for Crist’s 2006 gubernatorial rival, Tom Gallagher. “He absolutely disarms even his most ardent opponents. It’s just like what the Democrats tried to figure out in the 1980s — `How are we losing to this guy, Ronald Reagan?’ ”

But talk to veteran Republican activists across Florida, from local organizers to elite operatives to big-money bundlers, and there’s a sense Crist could be in trouble. Probably not, but just maybe.

Money means a lot in a state as vast as Florida, and former state House Speaker Rubio, 38, may not prove viable. But many prominent Republicans see at least the potential for a GOP coup — especially after Crist picked his longtime political advisor, George LeMieux, to complete the unfinished Senate term of Mel Martinez.

“The George LeMieux pick was kind of a trip wheel,” said Slade, the former state Republican chairman. “When the mood begins to swing, it doesn’t take it long to build momentum. . . . If Marco can tap into the resources of conservative America, he could be a force far more powerful than Charlie bargained for.”

WARNING SIGNS The polls don’t show it yet, but warning signs abound for Crist. Local Republican executive committees and clubs in every corner of the state are holding symbolic “straw poll” votes where Rubio doesn’t just beat Crist, but consistently trounces him 8- or 9-to-1.

“I do think Charlie is vulnerable. People are really unhappy in general, but Republicans seem very, very unhappy with Crist,” said state Sen. Paula Dockery, R-Lakeland, recounting that 200 people showed up earlier this month to see Rubio at a Lakeland Republican club meeting that normally would have drawn a few dozen.

“When that was over, I don’t think one person left there planning to vote for Crist,” said Dockery, who is neutral in the Senate primary.

Crist knows he has problems with the Republican base, which is partly why hundreds of party activists have received calls from him recently and solicitations for advice on the Senate appointment. After infuriating conservatives for, among other things, campaigning for President Barack Obama’s stimulus package, Crist more recently has criticized the appointment of Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, bashed Obama’s healthcare reform plan as “cockamamy,” backed off his global climate change initiative, and stood by his handpicked state party chairman in attacking Obama’s plans to address school kids.

Part of Crist’s political strength, Republican strategists say, is his blank-canvas nature. People project their own leanings on him so that conservatives see a law-and-order fiscal conservative, while moderates and liberals see a pragmatic, common-sense politician. And everybody sees a good guy.

Former Gov. Lawton Chiles used to maintain strong personal favorableness ratings even among voters who disapproved of his job performance, recounted Marian Johnson, vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber of Commerce. Crist has consistently scored well on both counts.

“He really has personified being the people’s governor,” Johnson said. “People don’t look at him as someone to criticize because he’s so likable.”

A DEAD HEAT The question is what happens to Crist’s popularity when people start paying close attention and if opponents can avoid being drowned out by Crist’s lavishly funded campaign.

A Mason-Dixon poll in June found that while Crist was leading Rubio by nearly 30 points among Republicans, the two were in a dead heat among those who knew both candidates.

Off-year primaries tend to draw only the most active voters, and right now the most ardent Republican activists in Florida are disgusted with Crist. Only about a million voters are likely to turn out, and if the GOP anger seen at tea parties and healthcare town halls persists until election day 2010, Crist could have a tougher race than anyone expected.

“We’re seeing very low turnout around the country right now and if that continues we’re thinking the Republican primaries are going to be dominated by the most conservative and hard-core elements,” said Atlanta-based pollster Matt Towery. “I’m not saying Crist is in deep trouble. What I am saying is, it’s not a guarantee for him if Rubio can get some money and the turnout is low enough.”

Rubio is hitting every Republican club gathering and tea party protest he can, repeating his mantra that he only needs about 600,000 votes to win the nomination.

“Can you reach 600,000 votes going to tea parties alone? Of course not,” he says. “But at this point in the campaign that’s all you can do. There does come a point in time where the lights come on and you have to reach a broader audience. . . . The fundamental question is, `Will we have enough money to communicate our message?’ If I didn’t think we would have that, I wouldn’t be in the race. I think moral victories are overrated.”

You won’t find Crist at those tea parties, but you can find him any day of the week on your local TV station looking like the nicest fellow in Florida.

“Thank you for what you do, and thank you for what your colleagues did on this day, the original Sept. 11,” he said at a St. Petersburg fire station Friday as the cameras rolled. “All of Florida is grateful and all of America.”

A few hours later, Crist headed into another campaign fundraiser.

Miami Herald staff writer Beth Reinhard contributed to this report. Adam C. Smith can be reached at asmith@sptimes.com.