In Florida, Turning a Blind Eye to Hurricanes

The New York TImes--August 16, 2008

By DAMIEN CAVE and YOLANNE ALMANZAR

MIAMI — The hurricanes are coming. Carlos Alvarez, mayor of Miami-Dade County, cannot say when or how severe they will be, but every public speech he gives now includes a warning.

“Hurricanes are part of our lives,” he tells people, adding: “Every time you get groceries, add a few extra cans. Have some jugs to fill up with water.”

For many, though, the message has yet to register.

Florida’s faltering economy and a recent scarcity of major storms have led to what emergency management officials now describe as a dangerous level of complacency. More than two months into hurricane season, and even as Tropical Storm Fay formed on Friday over the Dominican Republic and headed west, Floridians on both coasts are less prepared to withstand a major storm than at any other time in years, according to officials, business owners and residents.

Further, a Harvard study last month identified a significant post-Katrina distrust of shelters, with about a quarter of people surveyed in coastal areas in eight states planning to stay home if a hurricane hits.

“Officials tell us that they are really quite worried about people who would not cooperate, who are not aware of what was about to happen,” said Robert Blendon, director of the Harvard report. “And just thinking of the mobile homes, if people stay and they really are blown all over, public officials, ambulance services, Red Cross units have to go find these people and provide them with support and services.”

The public cost could be significant. Miami-Dade County has spent $250 million in local, state and federal money cleaning up from the hurricanes of 2005, Katrina and Wilma, and officials say that when people are unprepared, the expense rises substantially.

That is partly what worries Larry Gispert, director of the emergency management office for Hillsborough County, on the Gulf Coast. Mr. Gispert says the questions he has received at preparedness seminars this year — like “When is the next hurricane coming to Tampa?” — show that residents are woefully uninformed.

“My concern is that they will get the religion at the very last moment,” he said. “Then they want everybody to help them at the very last moment, and that’s what we cannot do.”

Many officials attribute the lack of preparedness in part to a stroke of good luck: no major storms have hit Florida since 2005. As a result, Mr. Gispert said, “there is hurricane amnesia.”

“It’s human nature,” Mayor Alvarez said. “After a couple of years of nothing, you start to say, ‘It can’t hit us.’ ”

But the economy has also played a role. Florida’s unemployment rate reached 6.1 percent in July, its highest level since 1995. And even for those working, the cost of extra food, water, gas and other supplies can be too much.

Cheth Thach, 23, the manager of a nail salon in the southern Miami-Dade city of Homestead, says routine expenses have become his main priority. Over the last six years, Mr. Thach says, he has spent roughly $2,000 in advance of hurricanes, on food and equipment, including shutters for his home. This year he has yet to spend a nickel.

“Financially, it’s kind of tough to buy everything,” he said. “You work, and there’s no money.”

Officials are also battling people’s heightened aversion to shelters and an overconfidence in the strength of their homes. The Harvard survey published last month polled residents in towns 20 miles from the coast. It found that roughly a quarter did not plan to leave at the approach of a major storm, fearing theft at their homes if they did, as well as violence on the roads or in shelters, similar to what happened in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina.

“I think for a lot of people’s minds the pictures are still there of the worst conditions that they saw in New Orleans, and that affects their willingness to go somewhere,” said Mr. Blendon, a professor at the Harvard School of Public Health.

In Florida, tightened building codes have given people more faith in their homes.

Albert Eiras of Miami has experienced some of the worst storms in Florida’s history, including Hurricane Andrew in 1992. For many, says Mr. Eiras, 37, that was a turning point.

“Then,” he said, “everybody was scared. They took it more seriously. But now, depending on the category, people won’t take it seriously. You live in the Keys, they probably won’t even board up. And a lot of that has to do with Andrew. People’s mentality is, ‘If I survived Andrew, I can survive anything.’ ”

On Aug. 7, scientists with the National Hurricane Center predicted that there would be 14 to 18 named storms this season, including 7 to 10 hurricanes, as many as six of which could be at least Category 3, meaning sustained winds above 110 miles per hour.

That was up from the May outlook, which forecast 12 to 16 storms for the season — June 1 through Nov. 30 — including six to nine hurricanes, with five possibly reaching Category 3 status.

Mayor Alvarez said that even a Category 1 hurricane, meaning winds of no more than 95 m.p.h., could cause damage in the tens of millions of dollars.

Mr. Eiras agreed that it was best to err on the side of caution.

“There are people who think, ‘I prepared last year,’ ” he said. “ ‘I spent so much money and nothing happened.’ But you just never know.”

Then, giving it some thought, he said he still needed to make sure he himself was ready.

“I would probably have to double-check the batteries and see if I have enough canned food and water,” he said. “Do I have enough supply to last me?”