Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology: May 8-11 Meeting Recap

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (“Commission”) held meetings in Tallahassee, Florida on May 8th and 9th, 2007 for the purpose of reviewing models for acceptability.

Public Commission hearings originally scheduled for May 10 and 11 were canceled due to an extension of time granted to two of the participating firms as reported in The Tampa Tribune.

 

Following is a report on the Commission proceedings of May 8 and 9, 2007:

The models that were reviewed and voted on during the meetings included HurLoss 4.0 c from Applied Research Associates, Inc. (ARA), USWIND 5.11/WORLDCATenterprise 3.9 from EQECAT, Inc. (EQE), and Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Model V9.0 from AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR). 

On the agenda but not reviewed were models from Risk Management Solutions (RMS) and the Florida Public Model (FPM).

The Commission voted on the acceptability of several standards in each model.  These standards include personnel, risk, vulnerability, hurricane characteristics and others.  If one standard failed to meet acceptability, then the entire model was rated unacceptable.

In addition to the public meetings, the Commission held meetings that were closed to the public because of trade secrets discussion. 

Below is a brief summary of the Commission’s actions regarding the models considered for acceptability.

 

Florida Public Model

On Tuesday, May 8, 2007 the Commission accepted a request to postpone their review of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model to allow for changes. The Public Model changes must be submitted to the Commission by June 12, 2007. The Commission is planning to discuss and vote on the Public Model in August. However, a specific date has not been set.

ARA Model

Also on Tuesday, the Commission held a closed and a public meeting for the ARA Model. At the public meeting, after an overview from ARA and discussion, the Commission accepted the ARA Model.

EQE Model

On Wednesday, May 9, 2007 the Commission held a pubic meeting for the EQE Model. After an overview from EQE and discussion, the Committee accepted the EQE Model.

AIR Model

Also on Wednesday, the Commission held a closed and public meeting on the AIR Model. At the public meeting, after an overview from AIR and discussion, the Committee accepted the AIR model.

The 2007 AIR Model contains certain refinements from the 2006 AIR Model including refinements in zip codes and demand surge. There was also general discussion about the consideration of warming sea temperatures affecting hurricane intensity. Further, the proposed 2007 AIR Model contains lower content vulnerability, due primarily to increases in home values without the parallel increase in home content values.

The Commission will hold its next meeting on June 20, 2007 to consider the acceptability of the RMS Model.

 

The above information is intended to be a brief summary of the meetings that took place and the Committee’s actions.  It is not intended to be a comprehensive analysis of the matters contained herein.  Should you require additional information, please do not hesitate to contact this office.