Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology June 2-3 Meeting Report
Jun 8, 2009
The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (“Commission”) met in Tallahassee on June 2 and 3, 2009 to review models submitted by Applied Research Associates, Inc., Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., and EQECAT, Inc. under the 2008 Standards to Determine Acceptability.
The Commission found that the following models reviewed during the meeting met all the required standards and are deemed acceptable:
- Applied Research Associates, Inc. (HurLoss Version 4.2a)
- Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (Version 3.1)
- EQECAT, Inc. (EQECAT Florida Hurricane Model 2009)
In a surprising, controversial move, the Commission deadlocked (4 yes – 4 no) over the final certification vote on the RMS model (RiskLink Version 8.0.1a) because of a meteorological detail relating to its compliance with two of the acceptability standards. (Each model must meet a total of 36 standards).
The meteorological detail in question relates to a specific component of the RiskLink model that converts simulated high atmospheric (gradient-level) winds to surface-level winds. RMS is evaluating the option for another certification meeting with the Commission.
Copies of meeting materials, including the 2009 Committee assignments, are attached for your review.
The Commission was created during the 1995 Legislative session as an independent panel of experts to evaluate computer models and other recently developed or improved actuarial methodologies for projecting hurricane losses. The Legislature specifically determined that, in addition to improving the accuracy of hurricane losses, reliable loss projections are necessary to assure that residential property insurance rates are neither excessive, nor inadequate.
The Commission approved the AIR Worldwide Corporation Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Model V11.0 at its most recent (May 19) meeting.
To view the Commission Standards of Acceptability and a report on the May 19 meeting, click here.
Should you have any questions or comments, please contact Colodny Fass.
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