Florida Commission On Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Holds 2-Day Meeting

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (“Commission”) met in Tallahassee, Florida on September 20 and 21, 2007. 

The Commission approved the standards and forms which hurricane modeling companies and the Florida Public Model must follow when adopting hurricane models.  It also reviewed several proposed changes to the various modeling standards, adopting some, while rejecting others. 

Some of the adopted changes were included in materials provided at the meeting, other adopted changes were not.  Nearly all of the changes suggested by the private modeling companies were rejected by the Commission. 

Below is a brief overview of the Commission’s Committee reports along with the standards that were adopted.

General Standards Committee

The Commission adopted General Standards G-1 through G-5 and Forms G-1 through G-7 relating to the Scope of the Computer Model, Qualifications of Modeler Personnel and Consultants, Risk Location, and Independence Model Components and related forms.  Alternative wording regarding the time period that loss costs are effective was rejected by the Commission.

Meteorological Standards Committee

The Commission adopted Meteorological Standards M-1 through M-6 and Forms M-1 through M-3 relating to the Base Hurricane Storm Set, Hurricane Parameters, Hurricane Probabilities, Hurricane Windfield Structure, Landfall Friction, Over-Land Weakening Methodologies, Hurricane Characteristics and related forms.  Several alternative language proposals requested by the private modeling companies were rejected by the Commission.

Vulnerability Standards Committee

The Commission adopted the Vulnerability Standards V-1 and V-2 as well as Forms V-1 through V-3 relating to Derivation of Vulnerability Functions and Mitigation Measures and related forms.

Actuarial Standards Committee

The Commission adopted the Actuarial Standards A-1 through A-10 and Forms A-1 through A-8 relating to Modeled Loss Costs, Underwriting Assumptions, Loss Cost Projections, Demand Surge, User Inputs, Logical Relationship to Risk, Deductibles and Policy Limits, Contents, Additional Living Expenses, and Output Ranges and related forms.

Statistical Standards Committee

The Commission adopted the Statistical Standards S-1 through S-6 and Forms S-1 through S-5 relating to Modeled Results and Goodness of Fit, Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output, Uncertainty Analysis for Model Output, County Level Aggregation, Replication of Known Hurricane Losses, Comparison of Projected Hurricane Loss Costs and related forms.

Computer Standards Committee

The Commission adopted the Computer Standards C-1 through C-7 relating to Documentation, Requirements, Model Architecture, Component Design, Implementation, Verification, Model Maintenance, Revision and Security. 

Acceptability Process Committee

The Commission adopted the Model Identification, Submission Data, Comparison of 2007 Standards to 2006 Standards, Definitions, Acceptability Process, On-Site Review, Commission Structure, Principles, Finding of the Commission, Introduction, Letter to Trustees, Commission Members, Table of Contents, References, Inquiries or Investigations and Appendices.  

The Commission next discussed and later rejected proposals allowing for paperless submissions and for modeling companies to submit more than one model, stating that it would consider those ideas next year.

Finally, the Commission was presented with a summary of The Model Comparison Report (“Report”) that will be presented to House Speaker Marco Rubio.  In summary, the Report provides a baseline for evaluating individual hurricane models and specifies that although individual models will vary, the variances should be understandable.  The Commission voted to allow Chair, Randy Dumm, to work with staff on finalizing the Report. 

There being no further business before the Commission, the Meeting adjourned.

The materials that were provided at the Meeting can be viewed by clicking here.

 

*Please note that the information provided above is a brief summary of the discussion and events that took place during the meeting.  It is not intended to be a comprehensive review of any issue(s) relating to the policies and/or programs discussed.  Further, this report should not be relied upon in making any specific decisions. 

Should you have any questions about any of the above matters, please do not hesitate to contact this office