Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Approves RMS’ RiskLink Version 11.0
Jun 3, 2011
During the afternoon portion of its meeting yesterday, June 2, 2011, the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (“FCHLPM”) reviewed Risk Management Solutions, Inc (“RMS”) Model, RiskLink Version 11.0, which was submitted under the FCHLPM’s 2009 Standards to Determine Acceptability.
The meeting began with FCHLPM professional staff confirming that RMS had adequately addressed all deficiencies previously identified. RMS representatives then presented an overview of RiskLink Version 11.0, which is composed of a stochastic track model, a wind field model, a vulnerability model and a financial loss model.
In the interest of time, the RMS representatives spent the majority of the meeting discussing the two significant changes of the new model: the inland filling model and two new vulnerability regions.
Inland filling is the measure of the weakening of a storm as it crosses form over water to overland. The new inland filling model was a three-year research and development project that indicated that some coastal losses have been overestimated and some inland losses have been underestimated. Compared with past models, the new inland filling model indicates a 10 – 15 mph increase of wind speeds over the Florida peninsular inland and compares favorably with the ASCE 7 – 10 100-year hazard return period map used today by the construction design community.
RiskLink Version 11.0 does not suggest that inland risk is now greater than coastal risk; it suggests that inland risk has been underestimated in the past. The RMS representatives indicated that inland filling rates have increased in all Gulf and Atlantic Coast states.
These new vulnerability areas are two one-half mile-wide strips of land running along the Florida’s coast-one from Tampa to Key West and another from Florida City to around Indian River. The new vulnerability regions represent a narrowing of the traditional coastal vulnerability regions. The impact on average loss caused by the new model is around 6.5 percent.
After the RMS presentation and discussion, the FCHLPM approved RiskLink Version 11.0, with only one dissenting vote coming from Commissioner Howard Eaglefeld.
To access FCHLPM materials, click here.
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